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BEWARE!

1.  It’s Tuesday, March 15, 2016.

2. Yes, fans of Shakespeare and soothsayers, it’s the Ides of March. The 2060th anniversary of the assassination of Julius Caesar in the Roman Senate. I don’t believe they sell 2060th commemorative patches on the streets of Rome, a lost source of revenue for enterprising street vendors.

3. I’ve been thinking the words “Reichstag Fire” since Friday night, when I watched the footage of the canceled Don Trump rally in Chicago.

Did Trump try to orchestrate an event that would make his detractors look bad and bolster his candidacy, much the way the Nazis orchestrate a fire in the German parliament in order to blame Hitler’s targets? An event that could not fail to draw out hundreds of protestors because it took place in their neighborhood? Chicago Tribune columnist Eric Zorn is sort of on the same page with this

Obviously, I share the world view of the people who protested the Trump rally. It’s infuriating when a rally aimed at making you seem less than human takes place in your backyard.

But is what we all want – this miserable excuse of a human being totally, thoroughly, humiliatingly defeated – best served by disrupting his rallies? I wonder if the disruptions play into his hands. At the very least, they’re a way to further inflame these disgruntled people who have flocked to Trump the way the mice flocked to the Pied Piper.

4. I also find myself fluctuating between pity and contempt for the people supporting Trump. Pointing out statistics that the economy is growing, more people are working and the deficit is declining mean nothing when they’re told that none of the above is true. Pointing out that no one is responsible for killing more terrorists – including the mastermind of 9/11 – than Barack Obama means nothing to people brainwashed into thinking that he wants America defeated and second-rate.

Right now the arrow is pointing to contempt. There has always been a latent seething about people who are different among those who live in my mostly white, working-class area. Trump gives that anger what these people see as respectability – if this successful (?) businessman (?) can feel the same way I do, how wrong can I be?

5. People with common sense are scared, and I want this nonsense to end. On Thursday, I’ll talk about an idea that I have to combat Trumpism that might be better than disruption and playing into this schmuck’s hand, and might make his supporters see the futility of what they’re supporting.

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WOLVERINES

1. It’s Wednesday, March 9, 2016.

2. There might have been Beatles without George Martin, but we probably wouldn’t have heard of them. He fostered the creativity that made their work art that’s appreciated 50 years later. And he’s a reminder that great work is a collaboration and rarely solitary. His passing is sad.

3. I was wondering if President Obama would attend Nancy Reagan’s funeral. But he’s not – he’ll keep a commitment made to speak at the South by Southwest Conference in Austin.

It’s not as if this hasn’t happened before. Obama didn’t attend Betty Ford’s funeral, George W. Bush didn’t attend Lady Bird Johnson’s and Bill Clinton didn’t attend Pat Nixon’s. But Clinton did attend Jackie Kennedy’s funeral.

Nancy Reagan won’t be dishonored by Democratic administrations. Michelle Obama and Hillary Clinton will be there. Not sure if Rosalynn Carter will, but she’s in her 90s and might find it hard to travel.

I’m sure Fox News and its friends will get into a lather about this. Maybe that will be this week’s mouth-foaming for these dopes.

4. Michigan is an angry state.

Think about it. Few states have as angry a nickname as the Wolverine State.

It’s always been angry. The first Michigander to emerge on the national scene, Lewis Cass, was a general and an implementer of Andrew Jackson’s Native-American relocation program. He had an STFU attitude on slavery, advocating to let states decide what the hell they wanted.

It’s the home state of Michael Moore and Ted Nugent. Polar political opposites. Same hostile vibe.

That’s what we got last night in the primaries.

On the Republican side, of course Donald Trump won. It’s Michigan. Angry Republicans who sit on a crappy road to work or see their taxes rise because the business base has cleared out are going to think that a guy who comes off as angry as they are will help solve their problems.

On the Democratic side, of course Bernie Sanders won. It’s Michigan. Angry Democrats who’ve watched their jobs go overseas or whose water has been poisoned are going to think that a guy who comes off as angry as they are will help solve their problems.

Trump’s victory was pretty close to what was expected. Sanders’ was a shock. Hillary Clinton was up by 20 points in some polls, and the normally dead-on fivethirtyeight.com site gave her a better than 99% chance of winning.

And yet, she lost. Because it’s just really hard – even in a nation as angry as this one – to fathom how pissed off people in Michigan can get.

That anger is a big problem for the Democrats. A Republican might be able to win the White House without Michigan. It’s much harder for a Democrat. If Clinton is the nominee – and despite last night, she’s still well on track – she absolutely has to find a way to tap into that anger. That her husband’s fingerprints are on trade deals Michiganders blame for their problems doesn’t help.

If it’s Clinton vs. Trump, she has to hit hard on the fact that his businesses benefit from shipping jobs overseas and hiring foreign workers. Relentlessly hard. She has to commit major resources  – if Sanders unites with her at the convention, Michigan is a good place for him to campaign. For God’s sake, don’t send Bill.

I spent three months of my life in Michigan on an internship in college. For my fellow elitists on the East Coast, understand that it’s a beautiful state – once you get past the rusting infrastructure –  and its people are smart and thoughtful.

And angry. Like a wolverine.

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MISSING THE POINT

1. It’s Tuesday, March 8, 2016.

2. Even if Erin Andrews was wearing a Scarlett O’Hara gown, what a creep did to her in what she thought was the privacy of her hotel room was obscene.

Her privacy was invaded. And then, to add insult – not to mention assault – it became an undeserved public shaming through the magic of the Internet.

And while these sorts of things seem gossipy in a nation where there are some real problems, the coverage of Ms. Andrews’ lawsuit and verdict is very troubling.

There seems to be an emphasis on her state of dress when, in fact, it should be on the fact that this happened in the first place.

Obviously, the fact that the video gives prurient idiots something they think they want adds to her pain and suffering. I think headlines that characterize the nature of the video add to the curiosity factor. Even The New York Times fell into this trap.

The worst offender is The New York Post. I won’t repeat the headline or link to a picture of it, because the Post doesn’t deserve even one more click. What makes it all the more stupid is that the Post and Ms. Andrews are related by boss – Rupert Murdoch owns both the parent company of the newspaper and Fox Sports, at which Ms. Andrews currently works.

I doubt that $55 million can buy back peace of mind and security. But I hope, for Ms. Andrews’ sake, it does.

3. While his ego rivals – it might even surpass – that of Donald Trump, Michael Bloomberg didn’t get to be a multi-billionaire without being really smart. And despite what his sycophants who stood to rake in campaign bucks might have told him, he knew he couldn’t win a race for President of the United States.

Bloomberg also knew that running would almost ensure a Donald Trump or Ted Cruz presidency. And while, according to Forbes, he might be the eighth richest man in the world, the disaster either of those reigns of terror would inflict on the global economy would be too much for even him to endure.

If he had run, he would have drawn votes from the Democrats, most likely Hillary Clinton. His anti-gun and anti-junk food positions, combined with the fact that Wall Street is the key reason he’s as rich as he is, would have been anathema with the people who are rallying around Trump. Bloomberg stood no chance in any red state, and would have pushed swing states that Clinton might win into the Trump or Cruz column.

It probably bothers him that he won’t get to be President. Settling for trying to make sure a complete incompetent doesn’t get to the White House – and being worth about $40 billion – will have to do.

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KEEP IT GOING

1. It’s Monday, March 7, 2016.

2. Spring is two weeks away. There are Spring Training games on TV. Things are looking up.

3. I haven’t been blogging much in recent weeks. Thus I missed the Republicans bringing the crazy as only they can. The 2012 nominee bad-mouthing the 2016 front-runner whose support he sought whole-heartedly four years ago. The embarrassing crudeness of the most recent debate. The Trump pledge of allegiance in Florida. It’s hard to fathom.

What’s especially hard is the contrast with the Democratic contest.

Last night, in Flint, there were some heated moments between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders. They disagreed on policy and pointed out what they believed were inconsistencies or flaws in each other’s record.

But somehow they managed to talk about the issues confronting Flint – in particular, the water crisis that has further devastated the already beleaguered city. And they didn’t weigh in on each other’s physical characteristics, or call each other liars, or constantly interrupt one another so that neither could get a point across.

One reason Sanders’ saying “Excuse me, I’m talking” during one heated exchange resonated so much is that it was the only time in two hours that either of them did that. That’s not quite the way the Republican debates go.

4. I don’t think either candidate won the debate last night. I think both they and the Democrats did, because over the two hours there was a thoughtful, sometimes hard-fought discussion of the things that really mattered to the people watching. There is no question in my mind that both Clinton and Sanders have the intelligence and personal demeanor to run this country, especially compared to the man-children on the Republican side.

But I’m a Democrat and I come in with a bias. And here’s the problem: I doubt very seriously whether there are enough people who are so completely undecided about this election that the brains and maturity of the Democratic candidates compared to their Republican opponents matter.

5. That doesn’t mean the Democratic contest shouldn’t keep going. I support Clinton because I think she’s the smartest person in the field and can bring about the changes I’d like to see.

But I’ve always been a fan of Sanders. And I think he’s helping her. He’s keeping her focused on the issues. He’s giving voice to a side of the Democratic Party that really needs to sound off, and a side that I suspect Clinton is somewhat sympathetic to beyond the fact that she wants their votes in November.

If she wins the nomination fair and square, and gives Sanders and their supporters their due – at the convention and during the campaign – it will pay off big in the end by keeping the Democrats together. And, if there are any truly undecided people left by Nov. 8, the ones who can think will see the difference between her and whatever the Republicans throw at her.

6. I’m going to try to be better about blogging more frequently. See you tomorrow.

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SHOCKED, SHOCKED

1. It’s Wednesday, March 2, 2016. It is no longer Super Tuesday.

2. So now that the single biggest day of primaries and caucuses is over, here are some of the things that stand out:

— Hillary Clinton’s picture is splashed all over the place after she won seven of the 11 states up for grabs. But Bernie Sanders didn’t have a bad night. The victories in Minnesota and Colorado came late in the evening, after Clinton’s more prime-time wins, but they’re wins in significant states.

No, he’s not going to be the Democratic nominee. But Sanders and the people who support him want and deserve to be heard. They raise important questions and issues, including campaign finance reform. Clinton would be well advised to take those concerns seriously and make sure they’re addressed at the convention in Philadelphia and during the fall campaign.

When, I hope, Bernie Sanders will crisscross the country helping get her elected.

3. Here’s the best part of smarmy Ted Cruz’s speech last night: Not long after he implored the other candidates to get out, saying he’s the only one who has beaten Donald Trump one on one, Marco Rubio captured the Minnesota caucus.

If anything, Rubio’s victory is more impressive than Cruz winning his home state of Texas or the neighboring state of Oklahoma, because Minnesota is more in play in the general election.

I’m wondering if Democrats would have a much easier time with Cruz than with Trump. There’s almost no chance Cruz would generate much enthusiasm outside the solid red states. And he’s such a polarizing jackass that Democrats would have little trouble motivating their base in the blue and swing states.

4. It is eye-rolling to see Republicans protest Trump’s failure to disavow any support from the Ku Klux Klan. They’re shocked, shocked by this, the same way Inspector Renault was shocked, shocked that there was gambling going on at Rick’s Café Américain. How could anyone accept the backing of white supremacists?

Except that the modern Republican Party has made its way through the past 50 years by having a winking relationship with bigots. Nixon’s Southern Strategy. Reagan’s 1980 “states’ rights” speech not far from the Mississippi site where civil rights’ workers were killed. Romney’s 47% comments.

So stop being so shocked that Trump didn’t completely throw David Duke and the KKK under the bus. That’s not what Republicans have done up to now. And, besides, the people who are voting for Trump aren’t the least bit offended by any cozying to racists — a lot of them have been hiding the same thoughts for decades.

5. Some people feel sorry for Chris Christie after being a potted plant in the background of Trump’s victory speech. Don’t. If he looks like one of those “Oh yes, sir, Mr. Trump” flunkies at the Trump Tower, it’s because he embraced the role. He didn’t have to endorse Trump, he chose to do it.

It couldn’t happen to a more appropriate guy. He’s got less than two years left as governor of New Jersey – he should enjoy the limos and the fanfare that turn him on while he still has them.

6. There are lots of Democrats who wish Van Jones was running for president after last night’s confrontation with fellow CNN analyst Jeffrey Lord.

Jones called out Trump’s KKK fudging with Lord, who’s a Trump backer. His passion about the issue was a welcome reminder that these things aren’t just talking points — for people, especially African-Americans who have faced white supremacist violence for centuries, this is life and death.

Jones seems to draw a lot of flak from conservatives because of their perception of his views. But he’s smart and fair-minded, not afraid to criticize people on both sides of the political spectrum. He’s only 47, and maybe there’s a chance he can be the answer to some of the yearning Democrats feel about their future.

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EVERYONE KNOWS I’M IN OVER MY HEAD

1. It’s Tuesday, March 1, 2016.

2. Welcome to meteorological spring. The National Weather Service calls spring the entire months of March, April and May. So by one measure, winter is over. Yay!

3. You’re Donald Trump. You’re 69 years old and getting a little bored with stupid real estate deals and the same-old reality TV shows and putting your name on stuff that doesn’t last such as airlines and universities.

You’ve made fortunes and lost fortunes and you spend so much time answering lawsuits about all the tentacles of your business that you’ve got your own chair in the deposition room of your lawyer’s office.

But you crave attention. Yours is probably a slamdunk case for the professors at Stanford or one of the other top psychology schools. You didn’t get something from either your father or your mother, and so you craved it as an adult. You can’t keep yourself off TV.

And you’re good on TV. You know how to connect with an audience. TV is supposed to be a cool medium. Bullshit! You saw “Network.” The brasher you are, the more people watch. Call CNBC’s “Squawk Box” and say something outrageous about the economy. Call “Morning Joe” on MSNBC and posture about veterans. And then there’s your own show, on which you’ve made “You’re fired!” a catchphrase that people repeat around the country.

But the show ain’t what it used to be, because people get tired of the same old same old. So you need another project as you dodder into old age with the rest of us.

“Hey,” says one of the lemmings who think you’re the epitome of what’s cool and good. “There’s a presidential election. Why don’t you run, Mr. Trump?”

“Why don’t I run?,” you ask. You’re smarter than Obama – the idea that people love Obama even though he never put his name on a casino or ostentatious shopping mall really galls you.

And if you run, you can say whatever the hell you want. Hell, you say one thing one day and one thing the other.

So if one of the people who maintains the lawn on the Palm Beach house leaves the sprinkler system on too long, you can rail about Mexicans and how they’re only sending rapists to the United States. And how you’ll build a wall to keep them out and make them pay up. You’re in a pissy mood, and you say the first thought that comes to your head, and no one’s going to take it seriously anyway.

But they do. The people who’ve been hiding under rocks with their racism and xenophobia have been waiting for someone like you since George Wallace and David Duke didn’t quite pan out. You’re just spouting off – you’ve had to deal with people of different races and ethnicities for years. They’ve flocked to your casinos and bought your products just like everyone else.

Now, when you vent, every yahoo in a pick-up truck who thinks this country went downhill when Nixon resigned and John Wayne died cheers your every utterance. You’re their hero. You freakin’ won the New Hampshire primary!

But here’s the thing.

You don’t want to be president.

Sure you want to run for president. The adoration is a head trip. You love seeing your name on the front page of every newspaper every single day. You get to fly in to some yahoo airport on a plane with your name on it, and make some speech in which you say whatever the hell you want that day and it gets broadcast live on CNN and Fox and even C-SPAN.

Being president would be like being Obama. People hit you every single day. There’s all that crap the president does like appoint the head of some education commission and get briefings on whether the corn crop is good and the situation in Uganda and all kinds of other stuff that interests you not the least.

And while you’re certainly better than any of those other yokels like Lincoln or Jefferson or FDR, the collective weight of their history is oppressive. It’s not as much fun as appearing at a wrestling show or a cameo appearance in some bad comedy.

Now, however, you’re stuck. One of two bad things is likely to happen. One, you’re going to be the Republican nominee for president, and someone who’s figured you out – say, Hillary Clinton – will make you a laughing stock for the history books.

Or two, the multiple lightning strikes that have gotten you this far get you all the way. And then you’ll have a job in which you aren’t the boss – you work for the 323 million people of the United States. And they’re not particularly benevolent employers. They get agitated fast if the unemployment rate rises or some wayward American runs afoul of the other forces that exist in the world.

How to extricate yourself from this and go back to being just a celebrity. That’s a big problem right now. But there are lots of people, including the leadership of the Republican Party, who’d love to help you.

You’re Donald Trump. You’re 69 years old and you don’t want to turn 70 shuffling paper in a boring oval office that’s doesn’t have a single nymph on the wall.

(with homage to Jimmy Cannon)

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A TALE OF TWO COUNTRIES

1. It’s Wednesday, February 24, 2016.

2. Here’s country No. 1: Donald Trump won the Nevada caucus, garnering almost 46% of those who showed up. That was nearly twice as many people as stood up to support Marco Rubio or more than twice as many as those who backed Ted Cruz.

By all accounts, the people who voted in Nevada are angry about something. Angry about the economy. Angry about whatever the government does.

They’re especially angry about immigration. They see the idea of diversity in this society as a problem rather than an opportunity. Immigrants are sucking up their tax dollars, taking their jobs, succeeding where they are not.

3. Here’s country No. 2: The Academy Awards have generated controversy this year because there is not a single person of color nominated for an acting award. That fact has resurrected many of the complaints about Hollywood, that it is too white and too male.

The New York Times tackles that online this morning with a nice interactive. Women of all descriptions, and men of color or who are gay all weigh in on how difficult it is to sustain a career in the movie industry. 

4. What is troubling about both these countries is that, of course, they’re the same country: The United States of America. And yet, neither of these countries has any concept about the other one.

The people who are voting for Trump aren’t the least bit sympathetic to the people who are complaining about the movie industry. In fact, they think there are too many movies that pander to minorities, women or gays and lesbians. They’re waiting for Hollywood to come up with the next John Wayne.

The Hollywood folks who want more diversity in film production reflect the views of the people around them, the creative and diverse communities on both coasts. They can’t see why there isn’t recognition of this nation’s diversity, that quality and the market transcend race, gender and sexual orientation.

The 2016 election is a collision course for these two countries. There is no way the people in country No. 2 will be comfortable in a nation in which country No. 1 prevails. Country No. 1 believes it has lived long enough under the thumb of country No. 2, in the form of Barack Obama and his black otherness.

How America solves this will be the great test of this time. There are a lot of angry people out there, and the big problem is that we’ve become angry with each other.

The resolution could be painful.

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THE NEXT THREE WEEKS

1. It’s Tuesday, February 23, 2016.

2. President Obama wants to shut down the prison at Guantanámo Bay for those detained for suspected terrorism. He’s making proposals today, and, of course, Republicans in Congress will ignore them and condemn him for hating America.

The problem has always been that Guantanámo is a touchstone for those who really do hate America. It has been the best recruiting tool for al-Qaeda and ISIS since the George W. Bush administration got the idea soon after Sept. 11.

The President promised to shut it when he first took office. But conservatives, both Democrats and Republicans, have made it impossible to keep the promise.

Give the President credit for not giving up. But don’t expect Republicans to let this nation do the right thing anytime soon.

3. Republicans caucus in Nevada tonight, and then next Tuesday come votes and caucuses in 12 states. With so many races, it’s hard to say what exactly will happen. But you have to figure Trump will win a bunch, Cruz will take his home Texas and maybe some other state in the South, and Rubio has a shot at Virginia.

So I think the big day in the Republican race is March 15. And the big state is Florida.

It is a winner-take-all 99 delegate prize, one of the biggest in the Republican sweepstakes. It is one of those swing states that, thanks to our electoral system, get all the attention in the general election.

And it is the state that Marco Rubio represents in the U.S. Senate. When he decides to show up — he has a reputation for absenteeism that has been used against him in this campaign.

While Cruz is a strong favorite in his home state, Rubio is not. According to fivethirtyeight.com, Rubio is running second to Donald Trump in its analysis of polls taken in the state. Now, there doesn’t seem to have been one in about three weeks, but the fact that Rubio doesn’t have this locked is telling.

If Rubio can’t carry his home state in a Republican primary, it is going to make it that much harder to sell the idea that he can win the White House in all 50.

That’s what Trump is banking on. He is trying to get Cruz out of the way – as evidenced by all the “biggest liar” talk initiated by Trump in recent weeks – so he can take on Rubio one-on-one in Florida.

If Trump wins that, it’s over.

In some ways, it would be a blessing to know that the Republican skunk scent contest will be over before spring gets here. But if Donald Trump is the nominee apparent, the fact that he’s that much closer to the White House moves the terror level to red.

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DON’T TAKE YOUR EYE OFF THE BALL

1. It’s Thursday, February 18, 2016.

2. I’m not falling for it. All this talk that America has a chance to shift to the left. Peter Beinart’s long-winded article in The Atlantic. Today’s Times online piece on how the nominee who replaces Antonin Scalia could shift the court in a more liberal direction. 

As someone who expected liberalism to emerge triumphant in the 60s, after Nixon resigned in disgrace, as a reaction to the excesses of the Reagan years, I’m incredibly skeptical that there will be a liberal lean in our nation in my lifetime.

Yes, the Obama years have provided some great moments. Health care reform. Recovery from a would-be depression. A more reasonable foreign policy. Increased investment in alternative energy that is contributing to the fact that it’s easy to find gas under $2 a gallon (Remember when conservatives were keeping tabs on how long gas was over $3 in the Obama years? I don’t hear about that much any more.)

3. But the red states remain the red states. And mere conservatives and those even further to the right of them are fighting a scorched earth campaign against liberal progress.

The Scalia seat fight is just one skirmish. The gall exhibited by Republicans in Congress and on the campaign trail in denying President Obama’s right to appoint a successor should be shocking. It’s not. It’s par for the course for these people.

4. Since day one of his administration, the right has tried to deny Obama’s legitimacy. He wasn’t really born here. He isn’t really Christian. He’s violated his Constitutional oath. He hates America. He wants to take the nation to second-class status.

And what these people who attack Obama are really doing is sticking their middle finger at the 65.9 million people, 51% of those who actually took the trouble, who cast their vote for this man on Nov. 6, 2012.

5. If you believe liberalism is ascendant, you believe that Bernie Sanders can win the presidency on Nov. 8.

You’re crazy. If, by some chance, Sanders can get past Hillary Clinton and win the Democratic nomination, he will face a smear effort the likes of which will make you shudder. He will be on the defensive on day one for being a tax raiser, for embracing socialism. He will be portrayed as a Communist, as a non-Christian, as a crackpot.

It will never be about the issues in the campaign. It will be about what kind of nut the Democrats got conned into nominating.

And then, even as they now throw haymakers at each other in a way that should embarrass the eventual nominee this fall, the Republicans will triumph. Even with a real joke of a human being such as Donald Trump or Ted Cruz as the nominee.

So much for your shift to the left. So much for changing the Supreme Court. So much for building on Obamacare. So much for avoiding stupid wars in the Middle East, or a rapprochement with Cuba. So much for fixing this nation’s infrastructure. So much for thinking climate change is a real problem.

It’s a dangerous time for those of us who never thought “liberal” was a bad word. We’re being lulled into thinking we can shift the direction of the nation. It might be possible, but it’s not something that’s a given.

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TALK ABOUT YOUR FEAR OF GOD

1. It’s Wednesday, February 17, 2016.

2. I just watched the video of Pope Francis appearing to give the evil eye to someone who grabbed at him during an appearance in Mexico. First off, can you imagine the nightmares the target of the pope’s wrath will endure? Not to mention being the bête noire of the neighborhood.

I also have to think this is the second time we’ve seen this pontiff blow a fuse. Remember when he was Washington, and he was somehow tricked into seeing the Kentucky clerk-dope Kim Davis. The reaction from the Vatican wasn’t particularly easygoing.

Maybe a pope with a visible temper isn’t such a bad thing. At least you know where he stands. Or, in today’s case, what happens if he almost falls down. Not cool.

3. Met fans are excited that today is the day for pitchers and catchers to report to spring training camp in Port St. Lucie, Fla. What’s even more exciting is that not only have the pitchers and catchers been there for awhile, but the position players are showing up early as well.

The message that sends fans is simple but beautiful. We can’t wait to start a new season. After getting to the World Series last season, everyone in orange and blue wants the three more wins that makes this team a world champion.

4. It’s nice that his big brother tried to lend him a hand. But Jeb Bush has been toast for a while.

And I still think it’s because he was never that enthusiastic about pursuing this campaign in the first place. There’s always this sense that it’s an obligation for him, and one he would have gladly passed up.

Maybe he’ll surprise us Saturday night in South Carolina. But if he finishes behind Rubio, he needs to give up the chase.

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