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SHOCKED, SHOCKED

1. It’s Wednesday, March 2, 2016. It is no longer Super Tuesday.

2. So now that the single biggest day of primaries and caucuses is over, here are some of the things that stand out:

— Hillary Clinton’s picture is splashed all over the place after she won seven of the 11 states up for grabs. But Bernie Sanders didn’t have a bad night. The victories in Minnesota and Colorado came late in the evening, after Clinton’s more prime-time wins, but they’re wins in significant states.

No, he’s not going to be the Democratic nominee. But Sanders and the people who support him want and deserve to be heard. They raise important questions and issues, including campaign finance reform. Clinton would be well advised to take those concerns seriously and make sure they’re addressed at the convention in Philadelphia and during the fall campaign.

When, I hope, Bernie Sanders will crisscross the country helping get her elected.

3. Here’s the best part of smarmy Ted Cruz’s speech last night: Not long after he implored the other candidates to get out, saying he’s the only one who has beaten Donald Trump one on one, Marco Rubio captured the Minnesota caucus.

If anything, Rubio’s victory is more impressive than Cruz winning his home state of Texas or the neighboring state of Oklahoma, because Minnesota is more in play in the general election.

I’m wondering if Democrats would have a much easier time with Cruz than with Trump. There’s almost no chance Cruz would generate much enthusiasm outside the solid red states. And he’s such a polarizing jackass that Democrats would have little trouble motivating their base in the blue and swing states.

4. It is eye-rolling to see Republicans protest Trump’s failure to disavow any support from the Ku Klux Klan. They’re shocked, shocked by this, the same way Inspector Renault was shocked, shocked that there was gambling going on at Rick’s Café Américain. How could anyone accept the backing of white supremacists?

Except that the modern Republican Party has made its way through the past 50 years by having a winking relationship with bigots. Nixon’s Southern Strategy. Reagan’s 1980 “states’ rights” speech not far from the Mississippi site where civil rights’ workers were killed. Romney’s 47% comments.

So stop being so shocked that Trump didn’t completely throw David Duke and the KKK under the bus. That’s not what Republicans have done up to now. And, besides, the people who are voting for Trump aren’t the least bit offended by any cozying to racists — a lot of them have been hiding the same thoughts for decades.

5. Some people feel sorry for Chris Christie after being a potted plant in the background of Trump’s victory speech. Don’t. If he looks like one of those “Oh yes, sir, Mr. Trump” flunkies at the Trump Tower, it’s because he embraced the role. He didn’t have to endorse Trump, he chose to do it.

It couldn’t happen to a more appropriate guy. He’s got less than two years left as governor of New Jersey – he should enjoy the limos and the fanfare that turn him on while he still has them.

6. There are lots of Democrats who wish Van Jones was running for president after last night’s confrontation with fellow CNN analyst Jeffrey Lord.

Jones called out Trump’s KKK fudging with Lord, who’s a Trump backer. His passion about the issue was a welcome reminder that these things aren’t just talking points — for people, especially African-Americans who have faced white supremacist violence for centuries, this is life and death.

Jones seems to draw a lot of flak from conservatives because of their perception of his views. But he’s smart and fair-minded, not afraid to criticize people on both sides of the political spectrum. He’s only 47, and maybe there’s a chance he can be the answer to some of the yearning Democrats feel about their future.

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EVERYONE KNOWS I’M IN OVER MY HEAD

1. It’s Tuesday, March 1, 2016.

2. Welcome to meteorological spring. The National Weather Service calls spring the entire months of March, April and May. So by one measure, winter is over. Yay!

3. You’re Donald Trump. You’re 69 years old and getting a little bored with stupid real estate deals and the same-old reality TV shows and putting your name on stuff that doesn’t last such as airlines and universities.

You’ve made fortunes and lost fortunes and you spend so much time answering lawsuits about all the tentacles of your business that you’ve got your own chair in the deposition room of your lawyer’s office.

But you crave attention. Yours is probably a slamdunk case for the professors at Stanford or one of the other top psychology schools. You didn’t get something from either your father or your mother, and so you craved it as an adult. You can’t keep yourself off TV.

And you’re good on TV. You know how to connect with an audience. TV is supposed to be a cool medium. Bullshit! You saw “Network.” The brasher you are, the more people watch. Call CNBC’s “Squawk Box” and say something outrageous about the economy. Call “Morning Joe” on MSNBC and posture about veterans. And then there’s your own show, on which you’ve made “You’re fired!” a catchphrase that people repeat around the country.

But the show ain’t what it used to be, because people get tired of the same old same old. So you need another project as you dodder into old age with the rest of us.

“Hey,” says one of the lemmings who think you’re the epitome of what’s cool and good. “There’s a presidential election. Why don’t you run, Mr. Trump?”

“Why don’t I run?,” you ask. You’re smarter than Obama – the idea that people love Obama even though he never put his name on a casino or ostentatious shopping mall really galls you.

And if you run, you can say whatever the hell you want. Hell, you say one thing one day and one thing the other.

So if one of the people who maintains the lawn on the Palm Beach house leaves the sprinkler system on too long, you can rail about Mexicans and how they’re only sending rapists to the United States. And how you’ll build a wall to keep them out and make them pay up. You’re in a pissy mood, and you say the first thought that comes to your head, and no one’s going to take it seriously anyway.

But they do. The people who’ve been hiding under rocks with their racism and xenophobia have been waiting for someone like you since George Wallace and David Duke didn’t quite pan out. You’re just spouting off – you’ve had to deal with people of different races and ethnicities for years. They’ve flocked to your casinos and bought your products just like everyone else.

Now, when you vent, every yahoo in a pick-up truck who thinks this country went downhill when Nixon resigned and John Wayne died cheers your every utterance. You’re their hero. You freakin’ won the New Hampshire primary!

But here’s the thing.

You don’t want to be president.

Sure you want to run for president. The adoration is a head trip. You love seeing your name on the front page of every newspaper every single day. You get to fly in to some yahoo airport on a plane with your name on it, and make some speech in which you say whatever the hell you want that day and it gets broadcast live on CNN and Fox and even C-SPAN.

Being president would be like being Obama. People hit you every single day. There’s all that crap the president does like appoint the head of some education commission and get briefings on whether the corn crop is good and the situation in Uganda and all kinds of other stuff that interests you not the least.

And while you’re certainly better than any of those other yokels like Lincoln or Jefferson or FDR, the collective weight of their history is oppressive. It’s not as much fun as appearing at a wrestling show or a cameo appearance in some bad comedy.

Now, however, you’re stuck. One of two bad things is likely to happen. One, you’re going to be the Republican nominee for president, and someone who’s figured you out – say, Hillary Clinton – will make you a laughing stock for the history books.

Or two, the multiple lightning strikes that have gotten you this far get you all the way. And then you’ll have a job in which you aren’t the boss – you work for the 323 million people of the United States. And they’re not particularly benevolent employers. They get agitated fast if the unemployment rate rises or some wayward American runs afoul of the other forces that exist in the world.

How to extricate yourself from this and go back to being just a celebrity. That’s a big problem right now. But there are lots of people, including the leadership of the Republican Party, who’d love to help you.

You’re Donald Trump. You’re 69 years old and you don’t want to turn 70 shuffling paper in a boring oval office that’s doesn’t have a single nymph on the wall.

(with homage to Jimmy Cannon)

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A TALE OF TWO COUNTRIES

1. It’s Wednesday, February 24, 2016.

2. Here’s country No. 1: Donald Trump won the Nevada caucus, garnering almost 46% of those who showed up. That was nearly twice as many people as stood up to support Marco Rubio or more than twice as many as those who backed Ted Cruz.

By all accounts, the people who voted in Nevada are angry about something. Angry about the economy. Angry about whatever the government does.

They’re especially angry about immigration. They see the idea of diversity in this society as a problem rather than an opportunity. Immigrants are sucking up their tax dollars, taking their jobs, succeeding where they are not.

3. Here’s country No. 2: The Academy Awards have generated controversy this year because there is not a single person of color nominated for an acting award. That fact has resurrected many of the complaints about Hollywood, that it is too white and too male.

The New York Times tackles that online this morning with a nice interactive. Women of all descriptions, and men of color or who are gay all weigh in on how difficult it is to sustain a career in the movie industry. 

4. What is troubling about both these countries is that, of course, they’re the same country: The United States of America. And yet, neither of these countries has any concept about the other one.

The people who are voting for Trump aren’t the least bit sympathetic to the people who are complaining about the movie industry. In fact, they think there are too many movies that pander to minorities, women or gays and lesbians. They’re waiting for Hollywood to come up with the next John Wayne.

The Hollywood folks who want more diversity in film production reflect the views of the people around them, the creative and diverse communities on both coasts. They can’t see why there isn’t recognition of this nation’s diversity, that quality and the market transcend race, gender and sexual orientation.

The 2016 election is a collision course for these two countries. There is no way the people in country No. 2 will be comfortable in a nation in which country No. 1 prevails. Country No. 1 believes it has lived long enough under the thumb of country No. 2, in the form of Barack Obama and his black otherness.

How America solves this will be the great test of this time. There are a lot of angry people out there, and the big problem is that we’ve become angry with each other.

The resolution could be painful.

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THE NEXT THREE WEEKS

1. It’s Tuesday, February 23, 2016.

2. President Obama wants to shut down the prison at Guantanámo Bay for those detained for suspected terrorism. He’s making proposals today, and, of course, Republicans in Congress will ignore them and condemn him for hating America.

The problem has always been that Guantanámo is a touchstone for those who really do hate America. It has been the best recruiting tool for al-Qaeda and ISIS since the George W. Bush administration got the idea soon after Sept. 11.

The President promised to shut it when he first took office. But conservatives, both Democrats and Republicans, have made it impossible to keep the promise.

Give the President credit for not giving up. But don’t expect Republicans to let this nation do the right thing anytime soon.

3. Republicans caucus in Nevada tonight, and then next Tuesday come votes and caucuses in 12 states. With so many races, it’s hard to say what exactly will happen. But you have to figure Trump will win a bunch, Cruz will take his home Texas and maybe some other state in the South, and Rubio has a shot at Virginia.

So I think the big day in the Republican race is March 15. And the big state is Florida.

It is a winner-take-all 99 delegate prize, one of the biggest in the Republican sweepstakes. It is one of those swing states that, thanks to our electoral system, get all the attention in the general election.

And it is the state that Marco Rubio represents in the U.S. Senate. When he decides to show up — he has a reputation for absenteeism that has been used against him in this campaign.

While Cruz is a strong favorite in his home state, Rubio is not. According to fivethirtyeight.com, Rubio is running second to Donald Trump in its analysis of polls taken in the state. Now, there doesn’t seem to have been one in about three weeks, but the fact that Rubio doesn’t have this locked is telling.

If Rubio can’t carry his home state in a Republican primary, it is going to make it that much harder to sell the idea that he can win the White House in all 50.

That’s what Trump is banking on. He is trying to get Cruz out of the way – as evidenced by all the “biggest liar” talk initiated by Trump in recent weeks – so he can take on Rubio one-on-one in Florida.

If Trump wins that, it’s over.

In some ways, it would be a blessing to know that the Republican skunk scent contest will be over before spring gets here. But if Donald Trump is the nominee apparent, the fact that he’s that much closer to the White House moves the terror level to red.

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DON’T TAKE YOUR EYE OFF THE BALL

1. It’s Thursday, February 18, 2016.

2. I’m not falling for it. All this talk that America has a chance to shift to the left. Peter Beinart’s long-winded article in The Atlantic. Today’s Times online piece on how the nominee who replaces Antonin Scalia could shift the court in a more liberal direction. 

As someone who expected liberalism to emerge triumphant in the 60s, after Nixon resigned in disgrace, as a reaction to the excesses of the Reagan years, I’m incredibly skeptical that there will be a liberal lean in our nation in my lifetime.

Yes, the Obama years have provided some great moments. Health care reform. Recovery from a would-be depression. A more reasonable foreign policy. Increased investment in alternative energy that is contributing to the fact that it’s easy to find gas under $2 a gallon (Remember when conservatives were keeping tabs on how long gas was over $3 in the Obama years? I don’t hear about that much any more.)

3. But the red states remain the red states. And mere conservatives and those even further to the right of them are fighting a scorched earth campaign against liberal progress.

The Scalia seat fight is just one skirmish. The gall exhibited by Republicans in Congress and on the campaign trail in denying President Obama’s right to appoint a successor should be shocking. It’s not. It’s par for the course for these people.

4. Since day one of his administration, the right has tried to deny Obama’s legitimacy. He wasn’t really born here. He isn’t really Christian. He’s violated his Constitutional oath. He hates America. He wants to take the nation to second-class status.

And what these people who attack Obama are really doing is sticking their middle finger at the 65.9 million people, 51% of those who actually took the trouble, who cast their vote for this man on Nov. 6, 2012.

5. If you believe liberalism is ascendant, you believe that Bernie Sanders can win the presidency on Nov. 8.

You’re crazy. If, by some chance, Sanders can get past Hillary Clinton and win the Democratic nomination, he will face a smear effort the likes of which will make you shudder. He will be on the defensive on day one for being a tax raiser, for embracing socialism. He will be portrayed as a Communist, as a non-Christian, as a crackpot.

It will never be about the issues in the campaign. It will be about what kind of nut the Democrats got conned into nominating.

And then, even as they now throw haymakers at each other in a way that should embarrass the eventual nominee this fall, the Republicans will triumph. Even with a real joke of a human being such as Donald Trump or Ted Cruz as the nominee.

So much for your shift to the left. So much for changing the Supreme Court. So much for building on Obamacare. So much for avoiding stupid wars in the Middle East, or a rapprochement with Cuba. So much for fixing this nation’s infrastructure. So much for thinking climate change is a real problem.

It’s a dangerous time for those of us who never thought “liberal” was a bad word. We’re being lulled into thinking we can shift the direction of the nation. It might be possible, but it’s not something that’s a given.

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TALK ABOUT YOUR FEAR OF GOD

1. It’s Wednesday, February 17, 2016.

2. I just watched the video of Pope Francis appearing to give the evil eye to someone who grabbed at him during an appearance in Mexico. First off, can you imagine the nightmares the target of the pope’s wrath will endure? Not to mention being the bête noire of the neighborhood.

I also have to think this is the second time we’ve seen this pontiff blow a fuse. Remember when he was Washington, and he was somehow tricked into seeing the Kentucky clerk-dope Kim Davis. The reaction from the Vatican wasn’t particularly easygoing.

Maybe a pope with a visible temper isn’t such a bad thing. At least you know where he stands. Or, in today’s case, what happens if he almost falls down. Not cool.

3. Met fans are excited that today is the day for pitchers and catchers to report to spring training camp in Port St. Lucie, Fla. What’s even more exciting is that not only have the pitchers and catchers been there for awhile, but the position players are showing up early as well.

The message that sends fans is simple but beautiful. We can’t wait to start a new season. After getting to the World Series last season, everyone in orange and blue wants the three more wins that makes this team a world champion.

4. It’s nice that his big brother tried to lend him a hand. But Jeb Bush has been toast for a while.

And I still think it’s because he was never that enthusiastic about pursuing this campaign in the first place. There’s always this sense that it’s an obligation for him, and one he would have gladly passed up.

Maybe he’ll surprise us Saturday night in South Carolina. But if he finishes behind Rubio, he needs to give up the chase.

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ANYTHING HAPPEN IN THE PAST TWO WEEKS?

1. It’s Tuesday, February 16, 2016.

2. I haven’t given up the blog. I’ve been away. At some point, I’ll write some observations about my almost-a-week at Walt Disney World. But for the time being, let me weigh in on some things that have happened in the past couple of weeks.

3. Let’s say, heaven forbid, there’s some sort of natural disaster in Kentucky in the next 11 months. The Ohio or Mississippi rivers flood, or something like that.

Under the logic of the senior senator from the state, who’s also the majority leader of the Senate, President Obama should just sit on his hands and not lift a finger to help. After all, he’s only in office until January 20, 2017. And any relief he would provide to the beleaguered people of Kentucky would help them rebuild structures that would last past the day Obama walks out the White House door.

The Republican claim that the President shouldn’t appoint a successor to Antonin Scalia is nonsense. But then again, it’s not surprising. The Republicans have been working since before January 20, 2009 to delegitimize Barack Obama. Why should they stop now?

4. After three days of thinking about it, I have the following question: Who the hell would want to be the Supreme Court nominee?

You are going to be vetted like no other Supreme Court nominee in recent history. You are going to be the target of every special interest group that hates the President, the Democrats and anything resembling liberal democracy.

And you’re not going to be a Supreme Court justice.

In fact, there’s a good chance you have no chance in the world of ever becoming a Supreme Court justice. The Republicans are wrong to say the President can’t nominee someone, but they are well within their rights to reject any choice he makes – no matter how reasonable or moderate. If Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders win the White House, they’re going to want their own person on the court. If a Republican wins, fuggedaboutit.

It’s a thankless task to be this nominee. Any jurist who seriously dreams of being on the court will not want to be tarnished by what’s about to happen.

5. It’s why I think Attorney General Loretta Lynch is going to be the nominee. She’s been through the review process recently. And I don’t know if she ever thought of herself as SCOTUS material, so not getting there might not seem so awful. Plus, she’s tough. She can handle herself.

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BATTLE PLAN

1. It’s Wednesday, February 3, 2016.

2. Do Marie Osmond and Dan Marino keep gaining and losing weight so they can do those NutriSystem commercials that flood the airwaves this time of year?

3. Is it me or is the presidential election hype blotting out the Super Bowl hype?

4. Democrats are supposedly worried about facing Marco Rubio in the general election. And with signs that Rubio might be emerging as the non-crazy Republican in the field, it might not be a bad idea to debunk those fears.

Rubio’s big advantage in a general election against Hillary Clinton is the optics. Young guy, four young kids, into electronic dance music versus grandmother, major public figure for a quarter century, into Barbra Streisand and Carole King.

Rubio points out his youth a lot. But what is he for? He wants to roll back Obamacare. He wants to halt any rapprochement with Cuba or Iran. He appears open to the idea of sending troops back to Iraq for the fight against ISIS.

Frank Bruni’s terrific column in yesterday’s New York Times explained Hillary Clinton’s problem with young voters. She doesn’t talk about the future so much as she talks about what she has accomplished. Accomplishing things is fine, but that didn’t do much when she ran against the less experienced Barack Obama.

She needs to tackle this head on if Rubio is the GOP nominee. You can be young, but if your vision for the future is to roll back to the past, you might as well be 90. That needs to be Clinton’s plan of attack.

Rubio would be a more formidable opponent than demagogues such as Cruz or Trump. But he is in no way invincible. She should use the primary campaign against Bernie Sanders to hone her message to millennials and others under 40: a Hillary Clinton future is far more in their interest than a Marco Rubio future.

5. You know why Donald Trump shouldn’t have had coffee yesterday? Because coffee is for closers. And Trump didn’t close the deal in Iowa. He lost.

Writing that might get tired. But not yet.

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WITH AN L ON HIS FOREHEAD

1. It’s Tuesday, February 2, 2016.

2. It’s Groundhog Day. Fortunately, it looks like we got rid of the groundhog that burrowed a tunnel under our house. So if the miserable creature saw his shadow, he saw it somewhere other than here.

3. Some observations after Iowa:

— Here’s what’s unfair about the Iowa caucuses – how do maybe 400,000 people get to shape a race in which, eventually, about 120 million people will vote? It’s ridiculous. Even in Iowa itself, a quarter of the state’s voters determined who the other three-quarters will pick in November.

Don’t go trashing the pollsters who didn’t quite get the GOP race right. With a relatively small voting base, any number of things could skew an event that requires people to commit an hour or more on a weeknight. The kids have to go to school the next morning. There was an order at the plant that required working overtime. Someone called in sick. Those things weigh more heavily on a time suck like a caucus.

All that said, you have to think New Hampshire voters will take a new look at the three front runners in the GOP race. Cruz and Rubio should get a boost. And we’ll find out if Trump’s poll numbers have been inflated everywhere, not just Iowa.

And you have to wonder about the other so-called moderates in the field. Combined, Kasich, Bush or Christie didn’t even get 7% of the caucus raw vote in Iowa. Unless one of them pulls a shocker and finishes second in New Hampshire, they’re doomed. Rubio’s strong showing puts him clearly into the fore as the candidate of the less crazy.

On the Democratic side, there’s a lot of hand-wringing about both candidates. Clinton lost because she didn’t put Sanders away. Sanders lost because he couldn’t beat Clinton in a state with incredible favorables for his viewpoint (about two-thirds of the caucus participants considered themselves very or somewhat liberal).

Here’s the truth: It’s a tie, and a tie is a wash. It’s as if Iowa didn’t happen. Sanders remains strong in New Hampshire, and nothing about Iowa will change that. Clinton remains strong in South Carolina, a week and a-half after New Hampshire.

And who is this good for? Democrats – other than poor Martin O’Malley, who’s gone now.

If Clinton is the inevitable nominee, she needs to be tested. Sanders will give her that test. And if her people – including her husband – are as smart as everyone thinks they are, they will find a way to beat Sanders, and then they will find a way to embrace him and his supporters.

Hillary Clinton’s best shot against the Republican, especially if it’s Rubio, is standing on the podium at the convention in Philadelphia holding the arms of her solid running mate on one side and Bernie Sanders on the other. That’s the picture Democrats want to see.

Trump lost. He lost. He’s a loser. Loser Trump. Trump: 0 wins, 1 loss. Winning percentage: .000.

Obama won Iowa. Hillary Clinton won Iowa. Cruz won Iowa. Hell, Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum won Iowa. They’re not losers.

Trump is. In fact, he almost came in third.

Concession. Also-ran. Underperformer. All can be used in a discussion of Donald J. Trump.

Even I didn’t realize how good it would feel to type all that. I’d love to be able to do that again after New Hampshire.

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JANUARY IS OVER!

1. It’s Monday, February 1, 2016. The longest month of the year is history.

2. Sometime today, some meatball will become the first person ever to exercise his or her sacred right of franchise for Donald Trump. What a freakin’ waste.

3. Because Iowa is a caucus and not a primary, it’s a lot easier for the polls to be wrong.

It’s not just that people have to go to a school or community center, mark a ballot and leave. They have to stick around and organize into support groups.

So if you’re, say, a parent with child care issues, it’s a lot harder to attend a caucus than to vote in a primary. If you participate in a caucus, you’re going to miss your favorite TV show, or Monday wings night at the local restaurant. If there’s going to be a snowstorm, you’re going to be leery of hanging at somebody’s house.

Therefore, if the polls are wrong, don’t wag fingers at the pollsters or Nate Silver and his great fivethirtyeight.com. Something could happen in the course of the day that keeps people away.

4. Glad to see the recognition for the cast of “Spotlight” at the Screen Actors Guild awards. Moviegoers have been fortunate in the past year to have this terrific film and “The Big Short.” I’ve been fortunate in that both films deal with areas of interest to me – high-quality journalism and the financial crisis of 2008.

One reason “Spotlight” is so good is that it captures how the almost mundane teamwork of professional journalists can make a big difference in the world.

The film’s DVD and iTunes release is Feb. 23 if you can’t see it in a theater before then.

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