1. It’s Tuesday, February 23, 2016.

2. President Obama wants to shut down the prison at Guantanámo Bay for those detained for suspected terrorism. He’s making proposals today, and, of course, Republicans in Congress will ignore them and condemn him for hating America.

The problem has always been that Guantanámo is a touchstone for those who really do hate America. It has been the best recruiting tool for al-Qaeda and ISIS since the George W. Bush administration got the idea soon after Sept. 11.

The President promised to shut it when he first took office. But conservatives, both Democrats and Republicans, have made it impossible to keep the promise.

Give the President credit for not giving up. But don’t expect Republicans to let this nation do the right thing anytime soon.

3. Republicans caucus in Nevada tonight, and then next Tuesday come votes and caucuses in 12 states. With so many races, it’s hard to say what exactly will happen. But you have to figure Trump will win a bunch, Cruz will take his home Texas and maybe some other state in the South, and Rubio has a shot at Virginia.

So I think the big day in the Republican race is March 15. And the big state is Florida.

It is a winner-take-all 99 delegate prize, one of the biggest in the Republican sweepstakes. It is one of those swing states that, thanks to our electoral system, get all the attention in the general election.

And it is the state that Marco Rubio represents in the U.S. Senate. When he decides to show up — he has a reputation for absenteeism that has been used against him in this campaign.

While Cruz is a strong favorite in his home state, Rubio is not. According to fivethirtyeight.com, Rubio is running second to Donald Trump in its analysis of polls taken in the state. Now, there doesn’t seem to have been one in about three weeks, but the fact that Rubio doesn’t have this locked is telling.

If Rubio can’t carry his home state in a Republican primary, it is going to make it that much harder to sell the idea that he can win the White House in all 50.

That’s what Trump is banking on. He is trying to get Cruz out of the way – as evidenced by all the “biggest liar” talk initiated by Trump in recent weeks – so he can take on Rubio one-on-one in Florida.

If Trump wins that, it’s over.

In some ways, it would be a blessing to know that the Republican skunk scent contest will be over before spring gets here. But if Donald Trump is the nominee apparent, the fact that he’s that much closer to the White House moves the terror level to red.

1. It’s Thursday, February 18, 2016.

2. I’m not falling for it. All this talk that America has a chance to shift to the left. Peter Beinart’s long-winded article in The Atlantic. Today’s Times online piece on how the nominee who replaces Antonin Scalia could shift the court in a more liberal direction. 

As someone who expected liberalism to emerge triumphant in the 60s, after Nixon resigned in disgrace, as a reaction to the excesses of the Reagan years, I’m incredibly skeptical that there will be a liberal lean in our nation in my lifetime.

Yes, the Obama years have provided some great moments. Health care reform. Recovery from a would-be depression. A more reasonable foreign policy. Increased investment in alternative energy that is contributing to the fact that it’s easy to find gas under $2 a gallon (Remember when conservatives were keeping tabs on how long gas was over $3 in the Obama years? I don’t hear about that much any more.)

3. But the red states remain the red states. And mere conservatives and those even further to the right of them are fighting a scorched earth campaign against liberal progress.

The Scalia seat fight is just one skirmish. The gall exhibited by Republicans in Congress and on the campaign trail in denying President Obama’s right to appoint a successor should be shocking. It’s not. It’s par for the course for these people.

4. Since day one of his administration, the right has tried to deny Obama’s legitimacy. He wasn’t really born here. He isn’t really Christian. He’s violated his Constitutional oath. He hates America. He wants to take the nation to second-class status.

And what these people who attack Obama are really doing is sticking their middle finger at the 65.9 million people, 51% of those who actually took the trouble, who cast their vote for this man on Nov. 6, 2012.

5. If you believe liberalism is ascendant, you believe that Bernie Sanders can win the presidency on Nov. 8.

You’re crazy. If, by some chance, Sanders can get past Hillary Clinton and win the Democratic nomination, he will face a smear effort the likes of which will make you shudder. He will be on the defensive on day one for being a tax raiser, for embracing socialism. He will be portrayed as a Communist, as a non-Christian, as a crackpot.

It will never be about the issues in the campaign. It will be about what kind of nut the Democrats got conned into nominating.

And then, even as they now throw haymakers at each other in a way that should embarrass the eventual nominee this fall, the Republicans will triumph. Even with a real joke of a human being such as Donald Trump or Ted Cruz as the nominee.

So much for your shift to the left. So much for changing the Supreme Court. So much for building on Obamacare. So much for avoiding stupid wars in the Middle East, or a rapprochement with Cuba. So much for fixing this nation’s infrastructure. So much for thinking climate change is a real problem.

It’s a dangerous time for those of us who never thought “liberal” was a bad word. We’re being lulled into thinking we can shift the direction of the nation. It might be possible, but it’s not something that’s a given.

1. It’s Wednesday, February 17, 2016.

2. I just watched the video of Pope Francis appearing to give the evil eye to someone who grabbed at him during an appearance in Mexico. First off, can you imagine the nightmares the target of the pope’s wrath will endure? Not to mention being the bête noire of the neighborhood.

I also have to think this is the second time we’ve seen this pontiff blow a fuse. Remember when he was Washington, and he was somehow tricked into seeing the Kentucky clerk-dope Kim Davis. The reaction from the Vatican wasn’t particularly easygoing.

Maybe a pope with a visible temper isn’t such a bad thing. At least you know where he stands. Or, in today’s case, what happens if he almost falls down. Not cool.

3. Met fans are excited that today is the day for pitchers and catchers to report to spring training camp in Port St. Lucie, Fla. What’s even more exciting is that not only have the pitchers and catchers been there for awhile, but the position players are showing up early as well.

The message that sends fans is simple but beautiful. We can’t wait to start a new season. After getting to the World Series last season, everyone in orange and blue wants the three more wins that makes this team a world champion.

4. It’s nice that his big brother tried to lend him a hand. But Jeb Bush has been toast for a while.

And I still think it’s because he was never that enthusiastic about pursuing this campaign in the first place. There’s always this sense that it’s an obligation for him, and one he would have gladly passed up.

Maybe he’ll surprise us Saturday night in South Carolina. But if he finishes behind Rubio, he needs to give up the chase.

1. It’s Tuesday, February 16, 2016.

2. I haven’t given up the blog. I’ve been away. At some point, I’ll write some observations about my almost-a-week at Walt Disney World. But for the time being, let me weigh in on some things that have happened in the past couple of weeks.

3. Let’s say, heaven forbid, there’s some sort of natural disaster in Kentucky in the next 11 months. The Ohio or Mississippi rivers flood, or something like that.

Under the logic of the senior senator from the state, who’s also the majority leader of the Senate, President Obama should just sit on his hands and not lift a finger to help. After all, he’s only in office until January 20, 2017. And any relief he would provide to the beleaguered people of Kentucky would help them rebuild structures that would last past the day Obama walks out the White House door.

The Republican claim that the President shouldn’t appoint a successor to Antonin Scalia is nonsense. But then again, it’s not surprising. The Republicans have been working since before January 20, 2009 to delegitimize Barack Obama. Why should they stop now?

4. After three days of thinking about it, I have the following question: Who the hell would want to be the Supreme Court nominee?

You are going to be vetted like no other Supreme Court nominee in recent history. You are going to be the target of every special interest group that hates the President, the Democrats and anything resembling liberal democracy.

And you’re not going to be a Supreme Court justice.

In fact, there’s a good chance you have no chance in the world of ever becoming a Supreme Court justice. The Republicans are wrong to say the President can’t nominee someone, but they are well within their rights to reject any choice he makes – no matter how reasonable or moderate. If Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders win the White House, they’re going to want their own person on the court. If a Republican wins, fuggedaboutit.

It’s a thankless task to be this nominee. Any jurist who seriously dreams of being on the court will not want to be tarnished by what’s about to happen.

5. It’s why I think Attorney General Loretta Lynch is going to be the nominee. She’s been through the review process recently. And I don’t know if she ever thought of herself as SCOTUS material, so not getting there might not seem so awful. Plus, she’s tough. She can handle herself.

1. It’s Wednesday, February 3, 2016.

2. Do Marie Osmond and Dan Marino keep gaining and losing weight so they can do those NutriSystem commercials that flood the airwaves this time of year?

3. Is it me or is the presidential election hype blotting out the Super Bowl hype?

4. Democrats are supposedly worried about facing Marco Rubio in the general election. And with signs that Rubio might be emerging as the non-crazy Republican in the field, it might not be a bad idea to debunk those fears.

Rubio’s big advantage in a general election against Hillary Clinton is the optics. Young guy, four young kids, into electronic dance music versus grandmother, major public figure for a quarter century, into Barbra Streisand and Carole King.

Rubio points out his youth a lot. But what is he for? He wants to roll back Obamacare. He wants to halt any rapprochement with Cuba or Iran. He appears open to the idea of sending troops back to Iraq for the fight against ISIS.

Frank Bruni’s terrific column in yesterday’s New York Times explained Hillary Clinton’s problem with young voters. She doesn’t talk about the future so much as she talks about what she has accomplished. Accomplishing things is fine, but that didn’t do much when she ran against the less experienced Barack Obama.

She needs to tackle this head on if Rubio is the GOP nominee. You can be young, but if your vision for the future is to roll back to the past, you might as well be 90. That needs to be Clinton’s plan of attack.

Rubio would be a more formidable opponent than demagogues such as Cruz or Trump. But he is in no way invincible. She should use the primary campaign against Bernie Sanders to hone her message to millennials and others under 40: a Hillary Clinton future is far more in their interest than a Marco Rubio future.

5. You know why Donald Trump shouldn’t have had coffee yesterday? Because coffee is for closers. And Trump didn’t close the deal in Iowa. He lost.

Writing that might get tired. But not yet.

1. It’s Tuesday, February 2, 2016.

2. It’s Groundhog Day. Fortunately, it looks like we got rid of the groundhog that burrowed a tunnel under our house. So if the miserable creature saw his shadow, he saw it somewhere other than here.

3. Some observations after Iowa:

— Here’s what’s unfair about the Iowa caucuses – how do maybe 400,000 people get to shape a race in which, eventually, about 120 million people will vote? It’s ridiculous. Even in Iowa itself, a quarter of the state’s voters determined who the other three-quarters will pick in November.

— Don’t go trashing the pollsters who didn’t quite get the GOP race right. With a relatively small voting base, any number of things could skew an event that requires people to commit an hour or more on a weeknight. The kids have to go to school the next morning. There was an order at the plant that required working overtime. Someone called in sick. Those things weigh more heavily on a time suck like a caucus.

— All that said, you have to think New Hampshire voters will take a new look at the three front runners in the GOP race. Cruz and Rubio should get a boost. And we’ll find out if Trump’s poll numbers have been inflated everywhere, not just Iowa.

— And you have to wonder about the other so-called moderates in the field. Combined, Kasich, Bush or Christie didn’t even get 7% of the caucus raw vote in Iowa. Unless one of them pulls a shocker and finishes second in New Hampshire, they’re doomed. Rubio’s strong showing puts him clearly into the fore as the candidate of the less crazy.

— On the Democratic side, there’s a lot of hand-wringing about both candidates. Clinton lost because she didn’t put Sanders away. Sanders lost because he couldn’t beat Clinton in a state with incredible favorables for his viewpoint (about two-thirds of the caucus participants considered themselves very or somewhat liberal).

Here’s the truth: It’s a tie, and a tie is a wash. It’s as if Iowa didn’t happen. Sanders remains strong in New Hampshire, and nothing about Iowa will change that. Clinton remains strong in South Carolina, a week and a-half after New Hampshire.

— And who is this good for? Democrats – other than poor Martin O’Malley, who’s gone now.

If Clinton is the inevitable nominee, she needs to be tested. Sanders will give her that test. And if her people – including her husband – are as smart as everyone thinks they are, they will find a way to beat Sanders, and then they will find a way to embrace him and his supporters.

Hillary Clinton’s best shot against the Republican, especially if it’s Rubio, is standing on the podium at the convention in Philadelphia holding the arms of her solid running mate on one side and Bernie Sanders on the other. That’s the picture Democrats want to see.

— Trump lost. He lost. He’s a loser. Loser Trump. Trump: 0 wins, 1 loss. Winning percentage: .000.

Obama won Iowa. Hillary Clinton won Iowa. Cruz won Iowa. Hell, Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum won Iowa. They’re not losers.

Trump is. In fact, he almost came in third.

Concession. Also-ran. Underperformer. All can be used in a discussion of Donald J. Trump.

Even I didn’t realize how good it would feel to type all that. I’d love to be able to do that again after New Hampshire.

1. It’s Monday, February 1, 2016. The longest month of the year is history.

2. Sometime today, some meatball will become the first person ever to exercise his or her sacred right of franchise for Donald Trump. What a freakin’ waste.

3. Because Iowa is a caucus and not a primary, it’s a lot easier for the polls to be wrong.

It’s not just that people have to go to a school or community center, mark a ballot and leave. They have to stick around and organize into support groups.

So if you’re, say, a parent with child care issues, it’s a lot harder to attend a caucus than to vote in a primary. If you participate in a caucus, you’re going to miss your favorite TV show, or Monday wings night at the local restaurant. If there’s going to be a snowstorm, you’re going to be leery of hanging at somebody’s house.

Therefore, if the polls are wrong, don’t wag fingers at the pollsters or Nate Silver and his great fivethirtyeight.com. Something could happen in the course of the day that keeps people away.

4. Glad to see the recognition for the cast of “Spotlight” at the Screen Actors Guild awards. Moviegoers have been fortunate in the past year to have this terrific film and “The Big Short.” I’ve been fortunate in that both films deal with areas of interest to me – high-quality journalism and the financial crisis of 2008.

One reason “Spotlight” is so good is that it captures how the almost mundane teamwork of professional journalists can make a big difference in the world.

The film’s DVD and iTunes release is Feb. 23 if you can’t see it in a theater before then.

It’s January 29, 2016 and time for a belated edition of Friday Yes or No. I ask some questions that are answerable simply. The trick, my friends, is in clever question phrasing, but I probably shouldn’t tell you that.

Q1: Wouldn’t it be great if this were the last presidential cycle in which the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary got so much attention?

A1: Yes

Q2: Is that because Iowa and New Hampshire are inherently bad places with bad people?

A2: No

Q3: OK, is that because there’s something blatantly distorting about those two states shaping the entire election process every single quadrennial?

A3: Yes

Q4: Do you think this latest Hillary Clinton e-mail revelation will deal a big blow to her presidential hopes?

A4: No

Q5: But is it an enthusiasm kill for her supporters, even if it doesn’t pan out to be that damaging?

A5: Yes

Q6: I’m not a violent person, but is there something about Ted Cruz that makes you want to smack him?

A6: Yes

Q7: With the arrest of the wildlife refuge terrorists in Oregon and the indictment of the anti-Planned Parenthood video fabricators, has this been a good week for karma?

A7: Yes

Q8: Is this a good time to bring up the fact that Tuesday’s “American Experience” on PBS will be based on Candice Millard’s fantastic book about the assassination of President James Garfield?

A8: Yes

Q9: Does it sicken you that the state of Michigan sent bottled water to its Flint employees long before it responded to residents complaining about the brown ooze coming from their taps?

A9: Yes

Q10: Does today’s big Wall Street rally make you feel better about the state of the stock market as the year’s first month ends?

A10: No

Q11: Are you going to miss January 2016?

A11: No

1. It’s Wednesday, January 27, 2016.

2. Today is the 30th anniversary of the explosion of the Space Shuttle Challenger. It still makes me sad to think about it.

I imagine this is a tough day for the families of the crew, which included New Hampshire teacher Christa McAuliffe, as well as the people who work at the Kennedy Space Center in Cape Canaveral. I hope you will keep them in your thoughts.

3. I guess we’ll see whether the individuals remaining at the Malheur National Wildlife Refuge in Oregon are as rugged as they’d like you to believe. Their leaders are now in the local jail, with one of them dead, after a road stop turned violent.

Having met with hostility from people in the area around the wildlife refuge, as well as anyone else in the country with a brain, they were supposedly trying to get to a part of the state thought to be more friendly.

The New York Times story on the incident sort of hints at a little psychological ploy on the part of law enforcement, which must have been sick of this nearly month-long travesty.

Whatever happened, let’s hope this stupidity comes to a quick end and these people can move on to go support their buddy Donald Trump or some other Republican pineapple.

4. Speaking of Trump, Fox News is holding its ground on tomorrow’s debate. Megyn Kelly will be a moderator, so Donald Trump won’t show up.

Supposedly, the ratings won’t be as good as they would be with America’s biggest boor. But look at this way: when these debates were scheduled way back when, did anybody think they would be ratings winners?

And, although I can’t imagine how to prove it, I think tomorrow’s debate will do better than originally expected because people will tune in to see what Megyn Kelly and the other Republicans have to say about the missing oaf.

5. Trump, when he wants to appear morally superior to those opposed to him, loves to hide behind military veterans. The reason he says he’s not going to the debate tonight – besides the fact that the icky Megyn Kelly is there –  is that he’s doing a benefit for wounded vets.

I’m sure any event that gives these folks a night of entertainment is worthwhile. But for guys as brave as these, being a prop for someone hiding from a Fox News journalist must be somewhat distasteful.

6. Just when you thought this election couldn’t involve any more despicable characters, look who might show up. Michael Bloomberg is thinking about running for president.

And the person who loves this idea best has to be Donald Trump. That’s why you heard Trump trashing Mike’s raison d’être, the financial data and news company that made him one of the world’s wealthiest people. Trump told Wolf Blitzer that the company is fragile, and could go out of business if someone comes up with a better data terminal.

That had to have Bloomberg see red. His company is everything. He went back to it after 12 years as mayor of New York because he never left it. If he thinks he can sell more terminals by becoming the 45th President of the United States, he’ll try to do it.

And that’s Trump’s opening. Whether it’s Hillary Clinton or, as Bloomberg fears, Bernie Sanders, Mike will take more votes from the Democratic nominee than from Trump, who can win the presidency with about 35% of the vote.

I’m not sure how it happens other than through positive thinking, because his ego is a big honking factor. But Mike Bloomberg running for president would be a disaster.

1. It’s Tuesday, January 26, 2016. A week from today, it will be February. Finally.

2. It snowed a lot this past weekend here in the northern suburbs. But on Long Island, they got real snow. Two feet in some of the places I saw. And heavily traveled roads, including the Long Island Expressway, remained partly unplowed two days after the storm.

The good news is that it’s above freezing throughout much of the snowbound area. The bad news is that, at night, it gets below freezing and all those stupid wet puddles turn into ice slicks.

Moral of the story: Be careful out there!

3. It’s this simple: If Donald Trump cowers at the sight of Megyn Kelly, what the hell will he do when he shares a room with Vladimir Putin? Hassan Rouhani? Hillary Clinton?

I’m not a Fox News fan and the Ailewives who work there could care less what I think. But they’ve got to stand up to him. If Megyn Kelly is Fox’s go-to for a Republican debate, the network has to show its support. If not, why does she work there?

4. The best news story of 2016 so far has to be the fact that a grand jury in Houston, ostensibly sicced on Planned Parenthood by Republicans looking for political gain, instead indicted the jackasses who made videos attempting to frame the organization. The two face a charge of tampering with a governmental record and another related to purchasing human organs.

These two used fake licenses in a meeting with Planned Parenthood in which they tried to entrap the organization into illegally selling body parts from aborted fetuses. That’s not according to me. That’s according to the indictment from a grand jury convened by Republicans in Texas.

These so-called anti-abortion activists now face 20 years in prison. Planned Parenthood, which does all kinds of wonderful work to protect people’s health, faces nothing – at least until Republicans in Texas find something else they can try to trump up.

The worthless sack of feathers and dust known as Mike Huckabee was incensed by the indictment – how could these patriots face jail time, he asked, while people who perform abortions walk free? Because he’s a worthless sack of feathers and dust, it’s probably hard for him to understand that abortion remains legal in the United States and, with continued diligence, will remain so.

And if it doesn’t remain legal, abortion will continue unabated and become far more dangerous because women who don’t want to carry to full term for whatever reason will find a way to end a pregnancy.

Good job by the grand jury and by the lawyers for Planned Parenthood.